Since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran and the surrounding region on February 28, 2026, the conflict has introduced notable volatility into global energy markets. Crude oil and refined product prices have experienced sharp dislocations, natural gas benchmarks have come under pressure and physical supply chains across the region and beyond have faced material disruption.
Our latest briefing note on prediction markets and key developments in the US is now available here.
In the latest edition of our podcast series, Split the Difference, Mark Highman, Stephan Ariyan, Hannah Meakin and Simon Lovegrove compare the US and UK regulatory approaches to Prediction Markets and Events Contracts.
Listen to this episode here.
On March 5, 2026, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, published guidance (Tokenized Securities Capital Guidance or Guidance), in the form of responses to frequently asked questions, addressing the regulatory capital treatment of tokenized securities under capital regulations
On March 12, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission took two significant actions furthering the development of a regulatory framework for prediction markets. First, the CFTC issued a staff advisory outlining current regulatory expectations for listing and trading event contracts on prediction markets. Second, the CFTC published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking, signaling the
In February 2026, prediction markets faced growing regulatory scrutiny, with Senate Democrats urging the CFTC to ban contracts linked to geopolitical outcomes such as death and war, the CFTC’s Enforcement Division confirming that all trading prohibitions under the Commodity Exchange Act apply to prediction contracts and Chairman Michael Selig announcing plans for an advanced notice
3 February – 3 March 2026
ESG is changing the landscape for financial institutions as stakeholders, including investors, increasingly expect them to make their operations more sustainable.
Financial services regulators also view ESG as a priority, embedding the principles of climate-related financial risks into their supervisory frameworks and dealing with greenwashing issues.
There is
On 24 February 2026, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the first comprehensive update to the agency’s Enforcement Manual since 2017, formalizing key aspects of how the Division of Enforcement investigates, charges and resolves alleged violations of federal securities laws. Many of the policy changes were announced by SEC leadership and implemented
Recent statements and staff actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reflect a meaningful shift toward a more structured and harmonized regulatory approach to digital assets that should assist in the integration of digital assets within US financial markets.
Read our alert here.
On February 17, 2026, the CFTC filed an amicus brief in the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit case North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. v. State of Nevada, marking the agency’s first formal judicial intervention in the rapidly expanding litigation over the legal status of event contracts and prediction markets.
See