On 5 November 2024, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published the fifth vintage of its long-term climate macro-financial scenarios for forward-looking climate risks assessments.
The NGFS scenarios explore the transition and physical impacts of climate change, over a long-time horizon and under varying assumptions. The main development of this fifth phase is an updated assessment of physical risk. It now incorporates a new damage function, resulting in more substantial physical impacts from climate change. NGFS scenarios have also been updated with new economic and climate data, policy commitments, and model versions. The scenarios now incorporate the latest GDP and population projections of the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. In addition, they include the most recent country-level climate commitments as of March 2024.
The NGFS has also published three supplementary documents to provide guidance to central banks and supervisors on the use of the scenarios:
- A high-level overview of the updates in the Phase V publication package, with a specific focus on the new damage function used for (chronic) physical risk assessment.
- A more detailed explanatory note on the new damage function.
- An updated technical documentation which discusses the NGFS modelling framework and assumptions behind the scenarios.